Akwatia By-Election: NDC Leads, Yet Akwatia Contest Too Close to Call – William Boadi, EAI
As the much-anticipated Akwatia by-election approaches on Tuesday, September 2, 2025, the political atmosphere in the constituency is charged with energy, uncertainty, and keen public interest. The contest, largely framed as a straight fight between the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), has become a national talking point given its potential symbolic impact on Ghana’s political narrative.
From my analysis as a political analyst, available polling data and ground assessments point to a *slight but consistent lead for the NDC’s Bernard Bediako*, who currently enjoys support levels between 52% and 53%, compared to 47% to 48% for the NPP’s Solomon Asumadu.
Independent research firms, including Global InfoAnalytics and Sanity Africa, have both released findings that place the NDC marginally ahead. These results indicate that while the race remains competitive, the NDC has managed to maintain a steady edge over the NPP in recent weeks.
Political watchers attribute this performance to a combination of factors among them, the NDC’s ability to consolidate its base, its incumbency advantage in Parliament, and messaging around development promises. On the other hand, the NPP is relying heavily on its stronghold status in the Eastern Region and hopes to leverage sympathy following the unfortunate passing of the late MP, Ernest Kumi.
Though the NDC maintains a comfortable majority in Parliament, victory in Akwatia would reinforce its momentum and strengthen its public perception as the party with the wind at its back ahead of the 2028 elections. For the NPP, a win would serve as a morale booster, signaling resilience and relevance despite national challenges and polling setbacks.
One crucial element that cannot be overlooked is voter turnout. By-elections in Ghana historically attract lower participation compared to general elections. Whichever party can mobilize its supporters more effectively on election day will likely carry the day. While the NDC currently holds the advantage in projected support, the NPP still has an opening if it can energize and turn out its base.
At this stage, the evidence suggests that the *NDC is slightly ahead of the NPP* in the Akwatia by-election, maintaining a narrow but consistent lead in both polling and grassroots assessments. However, as with any competitive contest, the final outcome will depend heavily on election-day dynamics, turnout, and the ability of both parties to manage tensions and ensure a credible process.
For now, the NDC may enter Tuesday’s vote with the upper hand, but the battle for Akwatia remains too close to dismiss as a foregone conclusion.
We are one people. Ghana first.
Warm Regards
William Boadi
EAI’s Director, Political Analyst, Educationist, and Social Worker
+233541935106
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